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Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s recent speech to the US Congress was so sycophantic it was more sad than embarrassing.

We who think good ole Oz can be something other than a fiefdom of powerful foreigners are used to cringing when ever an Aussie politician visits the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Ironically it is the Labor politicians who are the most servile, because they think they have to prove they’re not lefties.  That will be one of the reasons for Gillard’s grotesque performance.

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The Value of Simple Models, with Examples of Economic Dynamics

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[This is posted in the new Category Economics, Technical]

[Published 14 March at Real World Economics Review Blog.  Also posted 12 March at Steve Keen’s Debtwatch]

Many people, including many heterodox economists, understand that the neoclassical equilibrium approach to understanding economies is futile and misleading [1], because modern economies are far from equilibrium.  The neoclassical prediction of equilibrium or near equilibrium requires a string of patently absurd assumptions.  However the development of better theories seems to be significantly hindered by a feeling that any superseding theory has to be thoroughly quantified before it can be useful, and a feeling that the neoclassical theory has set a benchmark for sophisticated mathematics that must be matched before another theory can be respectable.  Less fundamentally there seems to be a common perception that empirical insights can only be gained through elaborate statistical treatments of observations.

Here I offer some discussion from my experience as a natural scientist, and some examples regarding the Global Financial Crisis, to counter these hindrances.  Continue reading →

Steady State – A Book Review

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I just reviewed a small book by Geoff Mosley, Steady State:  Alternative to Endless Economic Growth.  Envirobook, Canterbury, NSW. RRP $21.95, 136pp, paperback.  The review is for the newsletter of Nature and Society Forum, based in Canberra.

Scarcely a day goes by without news of some loss or degradation:  a new invasive species, a habitat lost to fire or a shopping mall, a disintegrating ice shelf, a corner shop closing, rising obesity, on and on it goes.  Behind much of this bad news is the relentless growth of our economies and populations.  The casualties are in both the natural world and in our  societies, affecting our health, relationships and communities, as I don’t have to remind this audience. Geoff Mosley argues that we must come to grips with economic growth if we are ever to stop the losses.

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Global Warming Danger: Catastrophic?

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[A short version was published by the Canberra Times, 2 Feb, as “Evidence Points to Catastrophic Climate Change”.  A longer version was posted on On Line Opinion, 8 Feb.]

In a new scientific paper (pdf, 600kb) prominent climate scientist James Hansen and his colleague Makiko Sato argue that the Earth is now at least as warm as it was between earlier ice ages, and further warming by even one degree celsius could result in sea level rising by anything from 5 to 25 meters, with perhaps 5 meters rise by the end of this century.

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The Problem is Private Debt, not Government Debt

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The obsession on both sides of politics with cutting the Federal Government deficit is not only short sighted in the context of the recovery from recent floods.  It is also economically insupportable when private debt in Australia is more than twenty five times public debt.

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What a realistic government agenda would look like

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[This article was published by the Canberra Times 14 January, p. 19, under the title “Carbon price, wealth creation are critical issues this year”.]

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has declared that 2011 will be a year of accomplishment for her Government.  However many people are deeply frustrated that mainstream politics seems oblivious to new and dangerous issues, as global warming tightens its grip and the verities of old ideologies are found wanting.  There is a huge chasm between politics as usual and the issues we really should be addressing.

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Still Warming, Flooding Rains and London Freezes Notwithstanding

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[I recently spoke to a teachers’ group about the state of the evidence on global warming. Having updated myself, and seen various reports of complacency, confusion or plain arrogant stupidity, I have written a summary here.]

As delegates argue in a Cancun resort on your behalf about who will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions first, what’s your own feeling about global warming? With record rain and floods all over the southeast and a big freeze in Europe, it may seem that global warming has taken a holiday.

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Want a different result? Change your vote.

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I sent this letter to the Canberra Times this morning:

Two correspondents (CT, 17 Nov) raise concerns that are symptomatic of our modern condition. Laurie Quigg (Long waits) laments extremely long waits for services, and Chirs Ellis (Kicking toddlers) wonders what values lead the ACT to spend millions on football while firing five teachers who support children with special needs.

Laurie wonders if anyone can help. Yes, we can help ourselves, by changing our voting habits.

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